Title: Does a change in the ‘global net zero’ language matter?
Date: June 2023
Short description:

Changes in language used in long term climate policy can undermine their credibility and discourage climate action. Previous IPCC reports have promoted an idea of reaching ‘global net zero’ (GNZ) emissions by 2050 in order to limit global warming to 1.5oC. In the latest IPCC Report this language has been changed. To understand the impact of this change, we survey COP 26 participants to test their willingness to accept a shift in long term policy goals.

Authors:
Hannah Parris
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Glen P. Peters
Journal:
Global Sustainability
Tags:
Paris Agreement
net zero emissions
expert survey
Title: Understanding expectations from and capabilities of climate-economy models for measuring the impact of crises on sustainability
Date: June 2023
Short description:

The multi-faceted emergencies of our time (recession, pandemics, and international conflict) can disrupt progress towards sustainable development goals (SDGs). While climate-economy models can show pathways out of these disruptions, numerous stakeholder-informed enhancements are required to navigate through the interconnected SDG landscape.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Georgios Xexakis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Journal of Cleaner Production
Tags:
Integrated assessment modeling
fuzzy cognitive maps
Sustainable development goals
polycrisis
Title: A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
Date: May 2023
Short description:

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero.

Authors:
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Shivika Mittal
Ajay Gambhir
Robin Lamboll
Haris Doukas
Sara Giarola
Adam Hawkes
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandre C. Koberle
Haewon McJeon
Sigit Perdana
Glen P. Peters
Joeri Rogelj
Ida Sognnaes
Marc Vielle
Alexandros Nikas
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
COP26
CO2 emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions
Paris Agreement
Model inter-comparisons
infilling
feasibility
Title: Stakeholder-driven scenario analysis of ambitious decarbonisation of the Russian economy
Date: May 2023
Short description:

Climate change mitigation entails different meanings for developed and developing countries. As a major emitting, high-income, developing economy that is largely dependent on hydrocarbons, Russia currently sits in the middle of the two groups, needing not only to drastically reduce emissions but also to ensure necessary economic growth to finance decarbonisation.

Authors:
Alexander A. Shirov
Andrey Yu. Kolpakov
Ajay Gambhir
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandre C. Köberle
Ben McWilliams
Alexandros Nikas
Journal:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
Tags:
Russia
decarbonisation
Title: National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850
Date: March 2023
Short description:

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation.

Authors:
Matthew W. Jones
Glen P. Peters
Thomas Gasser
Robbie M. Andrew
Clemens Schwingshackl
Johannes Gütschow
Richard A. Houghton
Pierre Friedlingstein
Julia Pongratz
Corinne Le Quéré
Journal:
Scientific Data
Tags:
historical emissions
methane
Carbon Dioxide
nitrous oxide
Title: Why integrated assessment models alone are insufficient to navigate us through the polycrisis
Date: March 2023
Short description:

The silver lining of global crises is that they provide windows of opportunity for transformation. However, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are failing to successfully navigate these windows. We argue that a transdisciplinary approach is required to chart sustainable pathways through the polycrisis.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
One Earth
Tags:
Integrated assessment models
polycrisis
Title: Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-Carbon road transport in Europe
Date: March 2023
Short description:

Following the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries worldwide have committed themselves to undertaking efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Within the European Union (EU), the recent ‘Fit for 55’ policy package proposes ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies for all sectors as part of the EU's contribution to limiting global warming.

Authors:
Patrick Plötz
Jakob Wachsmuth
Frances Sprei
Till Gnann
Daniel Speth
Felix Neuner
Steffen Link
Journal:
Climate Policy
Tags:
Carbon budgets
road transport
Climate Change Mitigation
electric vehicles
Title: Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts
Date: February 2023
Short description:

As an instrument to minimize carbon leakage, the effects and feasibility of Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM) will depend on multiple design options. While the EU has committed to introducing CBAM as part of its green climate deal, pursuing climate efforts to successfully limit global warming requires a collective implementation involving major emitters China and the US. This paper quantifies the distributional impacts of a joint CBAM implementation of in a climate alliance or a club of the EU, the US, and China.

Authors:
Sigit Perdana
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
Tags:
carbon border adjustments
climate clubs
European union
USA
China
Title: Powering past coal is not enough
Date: February 2023
Short description:

Modelled low-carbon pathways rarely incorporate processes reflecting social and political realities. Now two studies rise to this challenge by exploring the implications of a landmark initiative to phase out coal, showing that we need greater political ambition for faster transitions to keep a 1.5 °C outcome in sight.

Authors:
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
Coal
Title: A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: the role of natural gas and climate ambition
Date: February 2023
Short description:

While fossil fuel prices soar during the 2022 global energy crisis, the European Union activates all available fossil-fuel levers and Greece still plans to use natural gas as a transition fuel for delignitisation, with strong concerns over potential exacerbation of energy poverty and hurdles to progress in climate action. This study assesses the trajectory of the Greek electricity mix and its reliance on natural gas under the current policy framework on the one hand, and an ambitious scenario aiming for complete decarbonisation by 2035 on the other.

Authors:
Anastasios Karamaneas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Natasha Frilingou
Georgios Xexakis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
Tags:
Greece
LEAP
OSeMOSYS
Russian gas
fuzzy cognitive maps
energy crisis
Title: Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region
Date: January 2023
Short description:

For its abundant fossil resources, the Central Asia and Caspian region plays a strategic role in the energy security of major markets, such as Europe and China. However, this dependence on export, added to a firm reliance on fossil fuels for internal consumption, represents a significant challenge for the decarbonisation of the region.

Authors:
Gabriele Cassetti
Alessia Elia
Maurizio Gargiulo
Alessandro Chiodi
Journal:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
Tags:
Central Asia Caspian region
decarbonisation
Title: Navigating through an energy crisis: Challenges and progress towards electricity decarbonisation, reliability, and affordability in Italy
Date: January 2023
Short description:

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amidst COVID-19 recovery efforts, the energy crisis has put enormous pressure to policymakers to balance climate action, sustainable development, and management of the impacts of fuel supply disruptions and price shocks. Policy and market responses, such as liquefied natural gas infrastructure investments and use of every available fossil-fuel lever to make up for Russian gas supply cuts, are feared to trigger new lock-ins, jeopardising decarbonisation.

Authors:
Natasha Frilingou
Georgios Xexakis
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Lorenza Campagnolo
Elisa Delpiazzo
Alessandro Chiodi
Maurizio Gargiulo
Ben McWilliams
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy Research & Social Science
Tags:
Sustainable development goals
Italy
decarbonisation
Energy security
Energy affordability
fuzzy cognitive maps
Title: Assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives
Date: December 2022
Short description:

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. Aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas.

Authors:
Jorge Moreno
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Jon Sampedro
Ajay Gambhir
Jem Woods
Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino
Journal:
Global Environmental Change
Tags:
Paris Agreement
SDGs
Integrated assessment models
Title: Expert perceptions of game-changing innovations towards net zero
Date: December 2022
Short description:

Current technological improvements are yet to put the world on track to net-zero, which will require the uptake of transformative low-carbon innovations to supplement mitigation efforts. However, the role of such innovations is not yet fully understood; some of these ‘miracles’ are considered indispensable to Paris Agreement-compliant mitigation, but their limitations, availability, and potential remain a source of debate.

Authors:
Sigit Perdana
Georgios Xexakis
Konstantinos Koasidis
Marc Vielle
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Ajay Gambhir
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Elin May
Ben McWilliams
Baptiste Boitier
Journal:
Energy Strategy Reviews
Tags:
expert survey
Game changers
Low-carbon innovations
Disruptive innovation
behavioural change
Title: European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia: A computable general equilibrium analysis
Date: November 2022
Short description:

The recent economic sanctions against Russia can jeopardise the sustainability of the European Union’s (EU) energy supply. Despite the EU’s strong commitment to stringent abatement targets, fossil fuels still play a significant role in the EU energy policy. Furthermore, high dependency on Russian energy supplies underlines the vulnerability of the EU energy security.

Authors:
Sigit Perdana
Marc Vielle
Maxime Schenckery
Journal:
Energy Strategy Reviews
Tags:
European union
Russia
Computable general equilibrium model
Fit for 55
Imports ban
Title: Reaching Paris Agreement Goal through Carbon Dioxide Removal Development: a Compact OR Model
Date: November 2022
Short description:

A compact operations research (OR) model is proposed to analyse the prospects of meeting the Paris Agreement targets when direct air capture technologies can be used or not. The main features of the OR model are (i) the representation of the economy and energy use with a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function; (ii) the representation of climate policy through the use of a safety emissions budget concept; and (iii) the representation of an international emissions trading scheme for the implementation of climate policy.

Authors:
Frédéric Babonneau
Alain Haurie
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Operations Research Letters
Tags:
Climate Change Policy
Optimal economic growth
Dynamic optimisation model
Market equilibrium constraints
CO2 direct reduction
Title: Where should electric vehicle users without home charging charge their vehicle?
Date: November 2022
Short description:

An often-heard argument against using plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) by urban dwellers is the missing curbside charging option. Some users are even expecting these charging stations to deliver cheap electricity. However, from an economic perspective several arguments speak against this hope and, furthermore, the need of curbside chargers is often exaggerated in literature. Consequently, we shed more light into these two hypotheses (H1. curbside charging is very costly and H2.

Authors:
Patrick Jochem
Till Gnann
John E. Anderson
Moritz Bergfeld
Patrick Plötz
Journal:
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Tags:
electric vehicles
Charging infrastructure
Curbside
Public Charging
Title: What can we learn from probabilistic feasibility assessments?
Date: November 2022
Short description:

In a new paper in Nature Energy, Odenweller et al. use uncertainty analysis to derive a probabilistic feasibility space for green hydrogen supply. Their analysis shows that even if electrolysis capacity grows as fast as wind and solar power have done, green hydrogen supply will remain scarce in the short term and uncertain in the long term.

Authors:
Ida Sognnaes
Journal:
Joule
Tags:
hydrogen
feasibility
Title: The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective
Date: October 2022
Short description:

In the EU, COVID-19 and associated policy responses led to economy-wide disruptions and shifts in services demand, with considerable energy-system implications. The European Commission's response paved the way towards enhancing climate ambition through the European Green Deal. Understanding the interactions among environmental, social, and economic dimensions in climate action post-COVID thus emerged as a key challenge.

Authors:
Gabriele Cassetti
Baptiste Boitier
Alessia Elia
Pierre Le Mouël
Maurizio Gargiulo
Paul Zagamé
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Haris Doukas
Alessandro Chiodi
Journal:
Energy
Tags:
Europe
COVID-19
behavioural change
European Green Deal
Title: Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains
Date: October 2022
Short description:

To tackle the negative socioeconomic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union (EU) introduced the Recovery and Resilience Facility, a financial instrument to help Member States recover, on the basis that minimum 37% of the recovery funds flow towards the green transition.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Georgios Xexakis
Aikaterini Forouli
Shivika Mittal
Ajay Gambhir
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy Policy
Tags:
COVID-19
green recovery
Europe
Title: Assessing Methane Emissions From the Natural Gas Industry: Reviewing the Case of China in a Comparative Framework
Date: October 2022
Short description:

The aim of this paper is to explore methane emissions from China’s fossil fuel industry compared with the USA and Canada, with a focus on the methane emission mechanisms, calculation methods, mitigation potential, and abatement technologies. As a large methane-emitting country, China lags behind the USA and Canada in methane emission reduction. Therefore, Chinese scientists, policy makers, and entrepreneurs should pay attention to methane emissions.

Authors:
Xi Yang
Yiying Gao
Mingzhe Zhu
Cecilia Springer
Journal:
Current Climate Change Reports
Tags:
methane
China
USA
Canada
Title: AUGMECON-Py: A Python framework for multi-objective linear optimisation under uncertainty
Date: October 2022
Short description:
This paper presents AUGMECON-Py, a Python framework for solving large and complex multi-objective linear programming problems under uncertainty, optimally and robustly capturing all solutions. On the core of the AUGMECON-Py software lies the integration of a well-established optimisation algorithm (AUGMECON) with Monte Carlo analysis that helps maximise robustness against stochastic uncertainty, thereby avoiding the complexity of numerous cascading methods and code scripts.
Authors:
Aikaterini Forouli
Anastasios Pagonis
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Georgios Xexakis
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Christos Petkidis
Haris Doukas
Journal:
SoftwareX
Tags:
Augmecon
Optimisation
portfolio analysis
Multi-objective programming
Title: Normalising the Output of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Date: September 2022
Short description:

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) constitute a quasi-quantitative modelling tool with the inherent ability to reduce the computational and data complexity of a represented system, as well as engage experts in the process to introduce human cognition in terms of how a system behaves. However, despite being constructed with and for experts, aiming to assist them into better understanding system dynamics, the interpretation of the semi-quantitative outputs of FCMs has been found challenging.

Authors:
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Georgios Xexakis
Christos Petkidis
Anastasios Karamaneas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
IEEE International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems & Applications
Tags:
fuzzy cognitive maps
Title: Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen
Date: September 2022
Short description:

Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these ‘hard-to-abate’ (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry.

Authors:
Xi Yang
Chris P. Nielsen
Shaojie Song
Michael B. McElroy
Journal:
Nature Energy
Tags:
China
hydrogen
Title: Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries
Date: September 2022
Short description:

Implementation of CBAM to support EU climate neutrality by 2050 has raised several concerns. As the mechanism aims to minimise leakage through equal fairness in global mitigation, imposing carbon tariffs on the EU’s imports of energy-intensive goods could curtail the export of EU trading partners. This might be detrimental, especially to the LDCs, due to their high exposures and vulnerability risks. This paper assesses and quantifies the implication of EU-CBAM and analyses eight complementary measures to mitigate the impacts on LDCs.

Authors:
Sigit Perdana
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Energy Policy
Tags:
carbon border adjustments
developing countries
Europe
Title: COVID-19 recovery packages can benefit climate targets and clean energy jobs, but scale of impacts and optimal investment portfolios differ among major economies
Date: September 2022
Short description:
To meet the Paris temperature targets and recover from the effects of the pandemic, many countries have launched economic recovery plans, including specific elements to promote clean energy technologies and green jobs. However, how to successfully manage investment portfolios of green recovery packages to optimize both climate mitigation and employment benefits remains unclear.
Authors:
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Aikaterini Forouli
Gabriele Cassetti
Alessandro Chiodi
Maurizio Gargiulo
Sara Giarola
Alexandre C. Koberle
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Shivika Mittal
Sigit Perdana
Marc Vielle
Georgios Xexakis
Haris Doukas
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
One Earth
Tags:
COVID-19
green recovery
Climate Change Mitigation
employment
Title: Enhancing the realism of decarbonisation scenarios with practicable regional constraints on CO2 storage capacity
Date: September 2022
Short description:

Most low-carbon scenarios produced by integrated assessment models deploy substantial amounts of carbon capture and storage (CCS). These models generally assume that CO2 storage is a low-cost and globally ubiquitous resource. Here we challenge this assumption, introducing a CO2 storage potential which accounts for the financial, contractual, and institutional barriers to CO2 storage, which we term the investable potential.

Authors:
Neil Grant
Ajay Gambhir
Shivika Mittal
Chris Greig
Alexandre C. Köberle
Journal:
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Tags:
Climate Change
Climate Change Mitigation
Carbon Capture and Storage
Carbon dioxide removal
Title: Cutting off Russian energy imports: energy and economic implications in the EU
Date: August 2022
Short description:

We use the GEMINI-E3 computable general equilibrium model to assess the energy and economic impacts of the EU embargo on fossil energy imports from Russia over the period 2022 to 2030. We consider that import restrictions are being phased in to reach a total embargo in 2025, under the new EU climate policy target of "fit for 55". The additional import capacities of the other exporting countries for natural gas are calibrated on the basis of a technoeconomic study.

Authors:
Sigit Perdana
Maxime Schenckery
Marc Vielle
Journal:
La Revue de l'Énergie
Tags:
Russian gas
energy crisis
Title: Prioritizing Climate Action and Sustainable Development in the Central Asia and Caspian Region
Date: August 2022
Short description:

The Central Asia and Caspian region is a geographical area facing the harsh effects of climate change, such as rapid temperature rise, water body desiccation, and biodiversity losses. Nevertheless, national climate policies in the region have not demonstrated the necessary ambition. A first glance primarily points to the abundance and exploitation of fossil fuels. Taking a closer look at the national and regional context, we identify a diversity of infrastructural, economic, and social challenges to the region’s sustainable development.

Authors:
Anastasios Karamaneas
Hera Neofytou
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Rocco De Miglio
Ben McWilliams
Haris Doukas
Journal:
The Palgrave Handbook of Zero Carbon Energy Systems and Energy Transitions
Tags:
Central Asia Caspian region
developing countries
Sustainable development goals
Stakeholder engagement
Multi-criteria group decision making
Title: Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications
Date: August 2022
Short description:

This review explains the science behind the drive for global net zero emissions and why this is needed to halt the ongoing rise in global temperatures. We document how the concept of net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions emerged from an earlier focus on stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Authors:
Myles R. Allen
Pierre Friedlingstein
Cécile A.J. Girardin
Stuart Jenkins
Yadvinder Malhi
Eli Mitchell-Larson
Glen P. Peters
Lavanya Rajamani
Journal:
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Tags:
net zero emissions
Title: Global patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19
Date: June 2022
Short description:

Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide a daily CO2 emissions dataset for the whole year of 2020, calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data. We find a global reduction of 6.3% (2,232 MtCO2) in CO2 emissions compared with 2019.

Authors:
Zhu Liu
Zhu Deng
Biqing Zhu
Philippe Ciais
Steven J. Davis
Jianguang Tan
Robbie M. Andrew
Olivier Boucher
Simon Ben Arous
Josep G. Canadell
Xinyu Dou
Pierre Friedlingstein
Pierre Gentine
Rui Guo
Chaopeng Hong
Robert B. Jackson
Daniel M. Ka
Journal:
Nature Geoscience
Tags:
CO2 emissions
COVID-19
Title: Parameter analysis for sigmoid and hyperbolic transfer functions of fuzzy cognitive maps
Date: May 2022
Short description:

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) have recently gained ground in many climate policy studies, mainly because they allow stakeholder engagement in reduced-form complex systems representation and modelling. They provide a pictorial form of systems, consisting of nodes (concepts) and node interconnections (weights), and perform system simulations for various input combinations. Due to their simplicity and quasi-quantitative nature, they can be easily used with and by non-experts.

Authors:
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Georgios Xexakis
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Operational Research
Tags:
fuzzy cognitive maps
operational research
mental modelling
Decision-making
participatory modelling
Title: Climate and sustainability co-governance in Kenya: A multi-criteria analysis of stakeholders' perceptions and consensus
Date: May 2022
Short description:

The Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development embody highly intertwined targets to act for climate in conjunction with sustainable development. This, however, entails different meanings and challenges across the world. Kenya, in particular, needs to address serious sustainability threats, like poverty and lack of modern and affordable energy access.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Anastasios Karamaneas
Michael Saulo
Ioannis Tsipouridis
Lorenza Campagnolo
Ajay Gambhir
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Ben McWilliams
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy for Sustainable Development
Tags:
Sustainable development goals
Sectoral decarbonisation
MCDA
climate co-governance
Climate policy
Title: Deep Decarbonization of the Indian Economy: 2050 Prospects for Wind, Solar, and Green Hydrogen
Date: May 2022
Short description:

The paper explores options for a 2050 carbon free energy future for India. Onshore wind and solar sources are projected as the dominant primary contributions to this objective. The analysis envisages an important role for so-called green hydrogen produced by electrolysis fueled by these carbon free energy sources. This hydrogen source can be used to accommodate for the intrinsic variability of wind and solar complementing opportunities for storage of power by batteries and pumped hydro.

Authors:
Shaojie Song
Haiyang Lin
Peter Sherman
Xi Yang
Shi Chen
Xi Lu
Tianguang Lu
Xinyu Chen
Michael B. McElroy
Journal:
iScience
Tags:
India
decarbonisation
Renewable energy
hydrogen
Title: Policy incentives for Greenhouse Gas Removal Techniques: the risks of premature inclusion in carbon markets and the need for a multi-pronged policy framework
Date: May 2022
Short description:

Almost all modelled emissions scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global temperature increase to well below two degrees include the use of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) techniques. Despite the prevalence of GGR in Paris-consistent scenarios, and indeed the UK's own net-zero target, there is a paucity of regulatory support for emerging GGR techniques..

Authors:
Joshua Burke
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
Energy and Climate Change
Tags:
Climate Change Mitigation
negative emissions
Carbon markets
Greenhouse Gas Removal
governance
Climate policy
Title: A post-COVID-19 economic assessment of the Chilean NDC revision
Date: April 2022
Short description:

Last year, Chile updated its Nationally Determined Contributions, moving from intensity-based emissions reductions to an effective emissions target. This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental impacts of this change in the current context of high uncertainty Chile faces with social protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different levels of economic growth through 2030.

Authors:
Frederic Babonneau
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Climate Change Economics
Tags:
COVID-19
NDCs
Chile
Title: Wind repowering: Unveiling a hidden asset
Date: April 2022
Short description:

Given the abundant availability of resources, the market potential, and their cost competitiveness, onshore wind farms and photovoltaic units are expected to drive the overall growth of renewable energy sources in the next decade. However, Europe is a small and densely populated continent, which results in many countries experiencing a severe shortage of suitable land sites for installing new wind and photovoltaic facilities.

Authors:
Haris Doukas
Apostolos Arsenopoulos
M. Lazoglou
Alexandros Nikas
Alexandros Flamos
Journal:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
Tags:
Repowering
Renewable energy
Wind potential
Land scarcity
Europe
Title: Public fast charging infrastructure for battery electric trucks – a model-based network for Germany
Date: April 2022
Short description:

Globally, road freight accounts for 40% of the CO2 emissions in the transport sector, mainly from heavy-duty vehicles (HDV). All the major truck markets have introduced fuel efficiency regulations for HDV, and the more ambitious regulations require the introduction of zero-emission HDV, for which battery electric trucks (BEV) are a promising candidate. However, frequent long-distance trips require a dense public high-power charging network if BEV are to meet today's operating schedules in logistics.

Authors:
Daniel Speth
Patrick Plötz
Simon Funke
Emanuel Vallarella
Journal:
Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
Tags:
electric vehicles
Electric Mobility
Germany
Title: Translating observed household energy behavior to agent-based technology choices in an integrated modeling framework
Date: March 2022
Short description:

Decarbonizing the building sector depends on choices made at the household level, which are heterogeneous. Agent-based models are tools used to describe heterogeneous choices but require data-intensive calibration. This study analyzes a novel, cross-country European household-level survey, including sociodemographic characteristics, energy-saving habits, energy-saving investments, and metered household electricity consumption, to enhance the empirical grounding of an agent-based residential energy choice model.

Authors:
Oreane. Y. Edelenbosch
Luciana Miu
Julia Sachs
Adam Hawkes
Massimo Tavoni
Journal:
iScience
Tags:
Energy sustainability
Energy Resources
Energy systems
Title: A multi-criteria decision support framework for assessing seaport sustainability planning: the case of Piraeus
Date: March 2022
Short description:

Seaports will play a pivotal role in the low-carbon transition of maritime shipping, the policy landscape in which is currently being shaped. In this context, we introduce a multi-criteria decision support framework for seaport sustainability planning, to identify the competitiveness of interventions under uncertainty and evaluate the direction of the sector’s policy context in terms of required actions.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Vasiliki Daniil
Eleni Kanellou
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Maritime Policy & Management
Tags:
seaport sustainability
maritime shipping
Multi-criteria group decision making
2-tuple TOPSIS
uncertainty
Greenhouse gas emissions
Title: Cultures of transformation: An integrated framework for transformative action
Date: February 2022
Short description:

The challenges posed by climate change have generated many initiatives that seek to implement societal transformations. In most cases, these focus on technology developments, adoption and diffusion but neglect the social and cultural dimensions of a transformation. Insights from systems and behavioural sciences can provide valuable guidance on these aspects, but the utility of this literature is limited by two factors.

Authors:
Hannah Parris
Alevgul H. Sorman
Carmen Valor
Andreas Tuerk
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Journal:
Environmental Science & Policy
Tags:
Sustainability transitions
Knowledge co-production
Energy Cultures Framework
Multi-level perspective
Psychology of behavioural change
Title: Hydrogen technology is unlikely to play a major role in sustainable road transport
Date: January 2022
Short description:

Technical and economic developments in battery and fast-charging technologies could soon make fuel cell electric vehicles, which run on hydrogen, superfluous in road transport.

Authors:
Patrick Plötz
Journal:
Nature Electronics
Tags:
hydrogen
Transportation
Title: When two movements collide: Learning from labour and environmental struggles for future Just Transitions
Date: January 2022
Short description:

The term ‘Just Transition’ (JT) emerged from the 1970s North American labour movement to become a campaign for a planned energy transition that includes justice and fairness for workers. There is diversity in the JT narratives and ambitions that different actors put forward regarding its aims and strategies.

Authors:
Becca Wilgosh
Alevgul H. Sorman
Iñaki Barcena
Journal:
Futures
Tags:
Just transitions
Unions
Labour movement
Environmental justice
Transformation
Title: Towards Sustainable Development and Climate Co-governance: A Multicriteria Stakeholders’ Perspective
Date: January 2022
Short description:

Although 2015 featured the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, broken down into 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), the year is mostly remembered for the global climate targets of the Paris Agreement. Seemingly two separate agendas, sustainable development and climate action are highly intertwined: the former is an explicit part of the Paris Agreement, while the latter constitutes one of the 17 goals.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Anastasios Karamaneas
Eleni Kanellou
Hera Neofytou
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Sustainable Development
Tags:
SDGs
MCDA
climate co-governance
Climate policy
2-tuple TOPSIS
Title: A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective
Date: December 2021
Short description:

Transport is among the sectors highly dependent on fossil fuels, relying almost exclusively on petroleum products. Biofuels have been suggested as a technology contributing to the sector's decarbonisation, especially in sub-sectors where upscaling electrification innovation is challenging. Brazil and Argentina have long been top biofuel producers.

Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandre C. Koberle
Georgia Kourtesi
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
Tags:
Brazil
Argentina
Transportation
Biodiesel
Multi-level perspective
Technological innovation systems
Title: Monetising behavioural change as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector: A case study in Greece
Date: December 2021
Short description:

Energy efficiency from behavioural changes will play a key role in meeting future climate targets. Current energy management actions, however, are still dominated by conventional interventions. Furthermore, demand-side transformations based on behavioural actions are hitherto underrepresented in modelling scenarios informing climate policy. In this context, this study aims to explore whether monetisation of behavioural change should be considered as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Vangelis Marinakis
Alexandros Nikas
Katerina Chira
Alexandros Flamos
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy Policy
Title: Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways
Date: December 2021
Short description:

Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy.

Authors:
Ajay Gambhir
Mel George
Haewon McJeon
Nigel W. Arnell
Daniel Bernie
Shivika Mittal
Alexandre C. Köberle
Jason Lowe
Joeri Rogelj
Seth Monteith
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
physical risks
transition risks
Climate Change Mitigation
Title: Coupling circularity performance and climate action: from disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science
Date: December 2021
Short description:

Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made for acknowledging the decarbonisation potential lying in transforming linear economic models into closed-loop industrial ecosystems and in shifting lifestyle patterns towards this direction.

Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Georgios Xexakis
Konstantinos Koasidis
José Acosta-Fernández
Iñaki Arto
Alvaro Calzadilla
Teresa Domeneche
Ajay Gambhir
Stefan Giljum
Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino
Andrea Herbst
Olga Ivanova
Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Anastasios Karamaneas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Sustainable Production and Consumption
Tags:
Circular economy
decarbonisation
Climate Change Mitigation
Climate-economy modeling
Transdisciplinary research
Integrated assessment modeling
Title: Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals
Date: December 2021
Short description:

Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4)-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions.

Authors:
Michelle Cain
Stuart Jenkins
Myles R. Allen
John Lynch
David J. Frame
Adrian H. Macey
Glen P. Peters
Journal:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
Tags:
methane
Paris Agreement
Greenhouse gas emissions
Title: Production of hydrogen from offshore wind in China and cost-competitive supply to Japan
Date: November 2021
Short description:

The Japanese government has announced a commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It envisages an important role for hydrogen in the nation’s future energy economy. This paper explores the possibility that a significant source for this hydrogen could be produced by electrolysis fueled by power generated from offshore wind in China. Hydrogen could be delivered to Japan either as liquid, or bound to a chemical carrier such as toluene, or as a component of ammonia.

Authors:
Shaojie Song
Haiyang Lin
Peter Sherman
Xi Yang
Chris P. Nielsen
Xinyu Chen
Michael B. McElroy
Journal:
Nature Communications
Tags:
hydrogen
offshore wind
wind
China
Japan
Title: A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts
Date: November 2021
Short description:

Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030.

Authors:
Ida Sognnaes
Ajay Gambhir
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Alexandros Nikas
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Ha Bui
Lorenza Campagnolo
Elisa Delpiazzo
Haris Doukas
Sara Giarola
Neil Grant
Adam Hawkes
Alexandre C. Koberle
Andrey Kolpakov
Shivika Mittal
Jorge Moreno
Sigit Perdana
Joeri Rogelj
Marc Vielle
Glen P. Peters
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
CO2 emissions
NDCs
Climate policy
Model inter-comparisons
Paris Agreement
Title: Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways
Date: November 2021
Short description:
Tackling climate change requires a rapid transition to net-zero energy systems. A variety of different technologies could contribute to this transition, and uncertainty remains over their relative role and value. A growing school of thought argues that rapid cost reductions in renewables reduce the need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in mitigation pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore how the value of CCS is affected by cost reductions in solar photovoltaics, onshore, and offshore wind.
Authors:
Neil Grant
Adam Hawkes
Tamaryn Napp
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
One Earth
Tags:
Renewable energy
CCS
Climate Change Mitigation
Integrated assessment models
Carbon dioxide removal
Title: The cost of mitigation revisited
Date: November 2021
Short description:

Estimates of economic implications of climate policy are important inputs into policy-making. Despite care to contextualize quantitative assessments of mitigation costs, one strong view outside academic climate economics is that achieving Paris Agreement goals implies sizable macroeconomic losses. Here, we argue that this notion results from unwarranted simplification or omission of the complexities of quantifying mitigation costs, which generates ambiguity in communication and interpretation.

Authors:
Alexandre C. Köberle
Toon Vandyck
Celine Guivarch
Nick Macaluso
Valentina Bosetti
Ajay Gambhir
Massimo Tavoni
Joeri Rogelj
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
Climate Change Mitigation
costs
perspective
Title: The policy implications of an uncertain carbon dioxide removal potential
Date: October 2021
Short description:

Many low-carbon scenarios rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet decarbonization goals. The feasibility of large-scale CDR deployment is highly uncertain, and existing scenarios have been criticized for overreliance on CDR. We conduct an expert survey on the feasible potential for CDR via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture and afforestation. We use the survey results to represent uncertainty in future CDR availability and explore the implications in an integrated assessment model.

Authors:
Neil Grant
Adam Hawkes
Shivika Mittal
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
Joule
Tags:
Carbon dioxide removal
negative emissions
feasibility
low-carbon scenarios
expert survey
uncertainty
NDCs
afforestation
BECCS
DACCS
Title: UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions
Date: October 2021
Short description:

Recent demands by developing countries, like India, that developed countries need to reach net-negative emissions, must be negotiated seriously under the UNFCCC. Failure to acknowledge that limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C leaves very little carbon budget for equitable redistribution risks further ambiguity on how to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Authors:
Aniruddh Mohan
Oliver Geden
Mathias Fridahl
Holly Jean Buck
Glen P. Peters
Journal:
One Earth
Tags:
UNFCCC
net zero emissions
net negative emissions
negative emissions
political economy
developing countries
Title: CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe
Date: October 2021
Short description:

Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet.

Authors:
Annelis K. Breed
Daniel Speth
Patrick Plötz
Journal:
Energy Policy
Tags:
electric vehicles
Europe
Title: Integrating Integrated Assessment Modelling in Support of the Paris Agreement: The I2AM PARIS Platform
Date: October 2021
Short description:
Calls “to do science differently” and democratise the research process have proliferated in the last decades, especially in the context of climate science and policy support. This new arena demands more participatory procedures to expand the knowledge-making beyond researchers and experts. One way that science has started to interact with society has been the increasing number of online platforms that have emerged as alternative forums, providing the opportunity for engaging a variety of tools, models, results, and preferences.
Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Stavros Skalidakis
Alevgul H. Sorman
Ester Galende-Sanchez
Konstantinos Koasidis
Filippos Serepas
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Jorge Moreno
Anastasios Karamaneas
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Eleni Kanellou
Haris Doukas
Journal:
IEEE International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems & Applications
Tags:
Integrated assessment models
open science
climate-economy modelling
Climate policy
Title: High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation
Date: October 2021
Short description:

Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. Yet, only limited information is available on its global potential and associated costs at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we present a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential using big data, machine learning and geospatial analysis.

Authors:
Siddharth Joshi
Shivika Mittal
Paul Holloway
Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla
Brian Ó Gallachóir
James Glynn
Journal:
Nature Communications
Tags:
solar photovoltaics
rooftop solar
Renewable energy
Modelling
Title: The Impact of U.S. Re-engagement in Climate on the Paris Targets
Date: August 2021
Short description:

The Paris Agreement seeks to combine international efforts to keep global temperature increase to well-below 2°C. Whilst current ambitions in many signatories are insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020. Not only did several major emitters announce net-zero mitigation targets around mid-century, but the new Biden Administration immediately announced the U.S.’s re-entry into Paris and a net-zero goal for 2050. U.S.

Authors:
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Michael Westphal
Mikel González-Eguino
Ajay Gambhir
Glen Peters
Ida Sognnæs
Haewon McJeon
Nathan Hultman
Kevin Kennedy
Tom Cyrs
Leon Clarke
Journal:
Earth's Future
Tags:
Paris Agreement
COP26
Title: The effect of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging on fuel consumption and tail-pipe emissions
Date: July 2021
Short description:

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) have an electric motor and an internal combustion engine and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from transport. However, their environmental benefit strongly depends on the charging behaviour. Several studies have analysed the GHG emissions from upstream electricity production, yet the impact of individual charging behaviour on PHEV tail-pipe carbon emissions has not been quantified from empirical data so far.

Authors:
Ahmet Mandev
Patrick Plötz
Frances Sprei
Journal:
Environmental Research Communications
Tags:
electric vehicles
charging
fuel consumption
Greenhouse gas emissions
Title: AI and Data Democratisation for Intelligent Energy Management
Date: July 2021
Short description:
Despite the large number of technology-intensive organisations, their corporate know-how and underlying workforce skill are not mature enough for a successful rollout of Artificial Intelligence (AI) services in the near-term. However, things have started to change, owing to the increased adoption of data democratisation processes, and the capability offered by emerging technologies for data sharing while respecting privacy, protection, and security, as well as appropriate learning-based modelling capabilities for non-expert end-users.
Authors:
Vangelis Marinakis
Themistoklis Koutsellis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energies
Tags:
artificial intelligence
data democratisation
energy data spaces
interoperability
data sharing
energy management
decarbonisation
decision support
Title: Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?
Date: June 2021
Short description:

Despite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher today than they were in 1990. Exploring this rise through nine thematic lenses—covering issues of climate governance, the fossil fuel industry, geopolitics, economics, mitigation modeling, energy systems, inequity, lifestyles, and social imaginaries—draws out multifaceted reasons for our collective failure to bend the global emissions curve.

Authors:
Isak Stoddard
Kevin Anderson
Stuart Capstick
Wim Carton
Joanna Depledge
Keri Facer
Clair Gough
Frederic Hache
Claire Hoolohan
Martin Hultman
Niclas Hällström
Sivan Kartha
Sonja Klinsky
Magdalena Kuchler
Eva Lövbrand
Naghmeh Nasiritousi
Peter Newell
Glen P. Peters
Youba Sokona
Andy Stirling
Matthew Stilwell
Clive L. Spash
Mariama Williams
Journal:
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Tags:
Greenhouse gas emissions
Climate Change Mitigation
Climate policy
Title: Potential integration of Chinese and European emissions trading market: welfare distribution analysis
Date: June 2021
Short description:

Central to the aims of the Paris Agreement, an integrated carbon market could potentially be a practical bottom-up option for effective and efficient mitigation. This paper quantifies the welfare effects of integration of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) between the European Union (EU) and China. Using the European version of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, our assessment reveals that integrating trading markets benefits both regions through the decrease welfare costs from abatements.

Authors:
Ru Li
Sigit Perdana
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Tags:
EU ETS
emissions trading systems
Europe
China
Title: Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison
Date: June 2021
Short description:

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns.

Authors:
Nikas, A., et al.
Journal:
Science of the Total Environment
Tags:
Europe
Energy system models
Model inter-comparisons
Stakeholder engagement
Climate policy
Integrated assessment models
Title: Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios
Date: June 2021
Short description:

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) features heavily in low-carbon scenarios, where it often substitutes for emission reductions in both the near-term and long-term, enabling temperature targets to be met at lower cost. There are major concerns around the scale of CDR deployment in many low-carbon scenarios, and the risk that anticipated future CDR could dilute incentives to reduce emissions now, a phenomenon known as mitigation deterrence.

Authors:
Neil Grant
Adam Hawkes
Shivika Mittal
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
Environmental Research Letters
Tags:
negative emissions
Carbon dioxide removal
Low-carbon transitions
Title: Global perspective on CO2 emissions of electric vehicles
Date: June 2021
Short description:

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a promising option for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the transport sector - especially when the fast decrease in carbon emissions from electricity provision is considered. The rapid uptake of renewable electricity generation worldwide implies an unprecedented change that affects the carbon content of electricity for battery production as well as charging and thus the GHG mitigation potential of PEV.

Authors:
Alexandra Märtz
Patrick Plötz
Patrick Jochem
Journal:
Environmental Research Letters
Tags:
CO2 emissions
electric vehicles
Title: Transport decarbonization in big cities: An integrated environmental co-benefit analysis of vehicles purchases quota-limit and new energy vehicles promotion policy in Beijing
Date: April 2021
Short description:

In the deep decarbonization era against climate change, big cities set ambitious targets for road transport. As China’s capital, Beijing has very strict vehicles quota-limit policies. This study contributes to the literature for its innovations on the evaluation of quota-limit executive policy for big cities which few studies have studied, and its improved method with integrated analysis model which distinguish itself for including future co-benefit estimation and enterprise-level data analysis.

Authors:
Xi Yang
Wanqi Lin
Ruixin Gong
Mingzhe Zhu
Cecilia Springer
Journal:
Sustainable Cities and Society
Tags:
Decarbonization in cities
Environmental co-benefits
New energy vehicle
Purchase quota-limit
Title: Economic assessment of the development of CO2 direct reduction technologies in long-term climate strategies of the Gulf countries
Date: April 2021
Short description:

This paper proposes an assessment of long-term climate strategies for oil- and gas-producing countries—in particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—as regards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase of surface air temperature to 2°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The study evaluates the possible role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies under an international emissions trading market as a way to mitigate welfare losses.

Authors:
Frédéric Babonneau
Ahmed Badran
Maroua Benlahrech
Alain Haurie
Maxime Schenckery
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Climatic Change
Tags:
Paris Agreement
Gulf Cooperation Council
Climate Change Mitigation
Carbon dioxide removal
Direct Air Capture
Title: Low-cost emissions cuts in container shipping: Thinking inside the box
Date: April 2021
Short description:

Container shipping has become an emission-intensive industry; existing regulations, however, continue to display limitations. Technical emissions reduction measures require large, long-term investments, while operational measures may negatively impact transportation costs and supply-chain practices. For container shipping to become more sustainable, innovative, low-cost technological solutions are required. This study discusses such a technological game-changer which utilizes a lighter container type that, contrary to conventional ones, does not require wood in its floor.

Authors:
Haris Doukas
Evangelos Spiliotis
Mohsen A. Jafari
Sara Giarola
Alexandros Nikas
Journal:
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Tags:
Container shipping
Climate Change
CO2 emissions
Freight weight reduction
Tree savings
Title: What is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece
Date: April 2021
Short description:
In alignment with the European Union’s legislation, Greece submitted its final 10-year National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) in December 2019, setting more ambitious energy and climate targets than those originally proposed in the draft version of the document. Apart from higher penetration of renewable energy sources (RES), the final NECP projects also zero carbon use in power generation till 2030.
Authors:
Diamantis Koutsandreas
Evangelos Spiliotis
Haris Doukas
John Psarras
Journal:
Energies
Tags:
Greece
Energy transition
delignitisation
energy modelling
macroeconomic impacts
Title: Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity
Date: April 2021
Short description:

Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community.

Authors:
Sara Giarola
Shivika Mittal
Marc Vielle
Sigit Perdana
Lorenza Campagnolo
Elisa Delpiazzo
Ha Bui
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Andrey Kolpakov
Ida Sognnaes
Glen Peters
Adam Hawkes
Alexandre Koberle
Neil Grant
Ajay Gambhir
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Jorge Moreno
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Journal:
Science of the Total Environment
Tags:
Integrated assessment modeling
Model inter-comparisons
harmonisation
Title: Energy and GHG Emissions Aspects of the COVID Impact in Greece
Date: April 2021
Short description:
The effects of COVID-19 have had devasting effects on both health and economies in 2020. At the same time, the lockdown and the downturn of economic activity resulted in a decrease in energy consumption and an accompanying reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Authors:
Dimitri Lalas
Nikolaos Gakis
Sebastian Mirasgedis
Elena Georgopoulou
Yannis Sarafidis
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energies
Tags:
COVID-19
Greece
electricity
Greenhouse gas emissions
lockdowns
Title: Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era
Date: March 2021
Short description:

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.

Authors:
Corinne Le Quéré
Glen P. Peters
Pierre Friedlingstein
Robbie M. Andrew
Josep G. Canadell
Steven J. Davis
Robert B. Jackson
Matthew W. Jones
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
COVID-19
CO2 emissions
pandemic
recovery
Title: From consultation toward co-production in science and policy: A critical systematic review of participatory climate and energy initiatives
Date: January 2021
Short description:

In recent decades, co-production has become a cornerstone both in science and policy-making, motivating further collaboration between different actors. To scrutinize such participatory processes within the climate and energy fields, we conducted a critical systematic review of 183 records, which includes scientific publications, but also other initiatives coming from the public administration or the non-profit sector.

Authors:
Ester Galende-Sánchez
Alevgul H. Sorman
Journal:
Energy Research & Social Science
Tags:
Co-Production
Citizen participation
Climate crisis
Energy transition
Decision-making
Title: Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018.
Date: January 2021
Short description:

Quantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions.

Authors:
Matthew W. Jones
Robbie M. Andrew
Glen P. Peters
Greet Janssens-Maenhout
Anthony J. De-Gol
Philippe Ciais
Prabir K. Patra
Frederic Chevallier
Corinne Le Quéré
Journal:
Scientific Data
Tags:
CO2 emissions
national inventories
Title: Editorial of special issue on transdisciplinary science in energy transitions: thinking outside strictly formalized modeling boxes
Date: December 2020
Short description:

This special issue is devoted to research that touches on such critical policy questions while enhancing the transparency and legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, as well as introducing innovative frameworks that improve the robustness of modeling outcomes against different types of uncertainties.

Authors:
Haris Doukas
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Journal:
Energy Sources Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy
Tags:
Special Issue
Title: The role of negative carbon emissions in reaching the Paris climate targets: The impact of target formulation in integrated assessment models
Date: November 2020
Short description:

Global net-negative carbon emissions are prevalent in almost all emission pathways that meet the Paris temperature targets. In this paper, we generate and compare cost-effective emission pathways that satisfy two different types of climate targets. First, the common approach of a radiative forcing target that has to be met by the year 2100 (RF2100), and, second, a temperature ceiling target that has to be met over the entire period, avoiding any overshoot.

Authors:
Daniel J A. Johansson
Christian Azar
Mariliis Lehtveer
Glen P Peters
Journal:
Environmental Research Letters
Tags:
negative emissions
Paris Agreement
Integrated assessment models
Title: Democratizing Energy, Energizing Democracy: Central Dimensions Surfacing in the Debate
Date: October 2020
Short description:

This perspective piece sets out to contribute to the academic and practitioner debates around energy transitions and democracy initiatives in the age of a climate crisis. For tackling present-day energy challenges in a democratic, equitable and just manner, critical social science and humanities research on meaning and materialities, new actors and narratives, values and democracy is indispensable.

Authors:
Alevgül H. Sorman
Ethemcan Turhan
Marti Rosas-Casals
Journal:
Frontiers in Energy Research
Tags:
Energy democracy
Climate crisis
Equity
Sustainability
Energy justice
Decarbonization
Title: Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe
Date: October 2020
Short description:

Europe’s capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence.

Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Ajay Gambhir
Evelina Trutnevyte
Konstantinos Koasidis
Henrik Lund
Jakob Z. Thellufsen
Daniel Mayer
Georg Zachmann
Luis Javier (de) Miguel González
Noelia Ferreras-Alonso
Ida Sognnaes
Glen P. Peters
Emanuela Colombo
Mark Howells
Adam Hawkes
Machteld van den Broek
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino
Alexandros Flamos
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy
Tags:
Energy
Modelling
Model inter-comparisons
Europe
Climate policy
Science diplomacy
Title: An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime
Date: October 2020
Short description:

In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100.

Authors:
Frédéric Babonneau
Olivier Bahn
Alain Haurie
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Environmental Modeling & Assessment
Tags:
Carbon dioxide removal
net zero emissions
Title: The Green Versus Green Trap and a Way Forward
Date: October 2020
Short description:

Massive deployment of renewables is considered as a decisive step in most countries’ climate efforts. However, at the local scale, it is also perceived by many as a threat to their rich and diverse natural environment. With this perspective, we argue that this green versus green pseudo-dilemma highlights how crucial a broad societal buy-in is. New, transparent, participatory processes and mechanisms that are oriented toward social licensing can now be employed.

Authors:
Haris Doukas
Alexandros Nikas
Giorgos Stamtsis
Ioannis Tsipouridis
Journal:
Energies
Tags:
climate
biodiversity
integrative policy support
social participation
Renewable energy
Title: The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models
Date: October 2020
Short description:

Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) can be cost-effective for carbon mitigation, but they also have environmental co-benefits and economic impacts that cannot be ignored. Despite many empirical studies on the co-benefits of NDCs at the national or sectoral level, there is lack of integrated assessment on DDPs for their energy, economic, and environmental impact. This is due to the limitations of bottom-up and top-down models when used alone. This paper aims to fill this gap and link the bottom-up MAPLE model with a top-down CGE model to evaluate China's DDPs' comprehensive impacts.

Authors:
Xi Yang
Jun Pang
Fei Teng
Ruixin Gong
Cecilia Springer
Journal:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
Tags:
Environmental co-benefit
Model linking
China-MAPLE
CGE
Deep decarbonization
Energy system optimization
Title: APOLLO: A Fuzzy Multi-criteria Group Decision Making Tool in Support of Climate Policy
Date: October 2020
Short description:

Multi-criteria decision making is a daily process in everyday life, in which different alternatives are evaluated over a set of conflicting criteria. Decision making is becoming increasingly complex, and the apparition of uncertainty and vagueness is inevitable, especially when related to sustainability issues. To model such lack of information, decision makers often use linguistic information to express their opinions, closer to their way of thinking, giving place to linguistic decision making.

Authors:
Alvaro Labella
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Apostolos Arsenopoulos
Haris Doukas
Journal:
International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems
Tags:
Linguistic decision making
Consensus
2-tuple TOPSIS
APOLLO
Multi-criteria group decision making
Austria
Climate policy
Title: The UK and German Low-Carbon Industry Transitions from a Sectoral Innovation and System Failures Perspective
Date: September 2020
Short description:

Industrial processes are associated with high amounts of energy consumed and greenhouse gases emitted, stressing the urgent need for low-carbon sectoral transitions. This research reviews the energy-intensive iron and steel, cement and chemicals industries of Germany and the United Kingdom, two major emitting countries with significant activity, yet with different recent orientation.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandros Nikas
Hera Neofytou
Anastasios Karamaneas
Ajay Gambhir
Jakob Wachsmuth
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energies
Tags:
United Kingdom
Germany
Systems of innovation
Sectoral Innovation Systems
System failures
Industrial transitions
Title: The desirability of transitions in demand: Incorporating behavioural and societal transformations into energy modelling
Date: September 2020
Short description:

Quantitative systems modelling in support of climate policy has tended to focus more on the supply side in assessing interactions among technology, economy, environment, policy and society. By contrast, the demand side is usually underrepresented, often emphasising technological options for energy efficiency improvements. In this perspective, we argue that scientific support to climate action is not only about exploring capacity of “what”, in terms of policy and outcome, but also about assessing feasibility and desirability, in terms of “when”, “where” and especially for “whom”.

Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Jenny Lieu
Alevgul Sorman
Ajay Gambhir
Ethemcan Turhan
Bianca Vienni Baptista
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy Research & Social Science
Tags:
Integrated assessment modeling
Transdisciplinary research
Behavioral change
Lifestyle
Climate policy
Deliberative democracy
Title: Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal
Date: August 2020
Short description:

The 1.5°C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed.

Authors:
Sabine Fuss
Josep G. Canadell
Philippe Ciais
Robert B. Jackson
Chris D. Jones
Anders Lyngfelt
Glen P. Peters
Detlef P. Van Vuuren
Journal:
One Earth
Tags:
Paris Agreement
Climate Change
Carbon dioxide removal
NDCs
Title: A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several sustainable development goals
Date: July 2020
Short description:

This research introduces a two-level integration of climate-economy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties. We use integrated assessment modelling outputs relevant for progress across three SDGs—namely air pollution-related mortality (SDG3), access to clean energy (SDG7) and greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13)—calculated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for different subsidy levels for six sustainable technologies, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), feeding them into a portfolio analysis model. Optimal portfolios that are robust in the individual socioeconomic scenarios as well as across the socioeconomic scenarios are identified, by means of an SSP-robustness score. A second link between the two models is established, by feeding portfolio analysis results back into GCAM. Application in a case study for Eastern Africa confirms that most SSP-robust portfolios show smaller output ranges among scenarios.

Authors:
Aikaterini Forouli
Alexandros Nikas
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Jon Sampedro
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Environmental Modelling & Software
Tags:
Integrated assessment modeling
Global change assessment model
Shared socioeconomic pathways
SDGs
Stochastic uncertainty
Scenario analysis
Title: Many Miles to Paris: A Sectoral Innovation System Analysis of the Transport Sector in Norway and Canada in Light of the Paris Agreement
Date: July 2020
Short description:

Transport is associated with high amounts of energy consumed and greenhouse gases emitted. Most transport means operate using fossil fuels, creating the urgent need for a rapid transformation of the sector. In this research, we examine the transport systems of Norway and Canada, two countries with similar shares of greenhouse gas emissions from transport and powerful oil industries operating within their boundaries. Our socio-technical analysis, based on the Sectoral Innovation Systems approach, attempts to identify the elements enabling Norway to become one of the leaders in the diffusion of electric vehicles, as well as the differences pacing down progress in Canada. By utilising the System Failure framework to compare the two systems, bottlenecks hindering the decarbonisation of the two transport systems are identified. Results indicate that the effectiveness of Norway’s policy is exaggerated and has led to recent spillover effects towards green shipping. The activity of oil companies, regional and federal legislative disputes in Canada and the lack of sincere efforts from system actors to address challenges lead to non-drastic greenhouse gas emission reductions, despite significant policy efforts from both countries. Insights into the effectiveness of previously implemented policies and the evolution of the two sectoral systems can help draw lessons towards sustainable transport.

Authors:
Konstantinos Koasidis
Anastasios Karamaneas
Alexandros Nikas
Hera Neofytou
Erlend A. T. Hermansen
Kathleen Vaillancourt
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Sustainability
Tags:
Norway
Canada
Electric Mobility
Transportation
Socio-technical Transitions
Climate policy
Sectoral Innovation Systems
System Failure Framework
Systems of innovation
Title: Sustainable energy transition readiness: A multicriteria assessment index
Date: July 2020
Short description:

With climate change mainly originating from the extensive use of fossil fuels and having impacts on many aspects of life, changing the way energy is utilised constitutes a challenge that the world collectively must tackle. In this respect, all countries should implement a variety of measures focusing on energy efficiency and use of sustainable energy sources towards decarbonising their economies and achieving effective greenhouse gas emission reductions and sustainable development. Technological innovations, economic growth, societal compliance, and the regulatory and institutional frameworks constitute prominent factors that could promote, hinder or shape energy transitions as well as indicate the capacity of energy systems to be transformed. Therefore, investigating energy transitions and the extent to which countries are prepared to carry out such transitions requires the consideration of insights into multiple dimensions. This study outlines a multicriteria analysis framework to assess a country's sustainable energy transition readiness level, drawing from four pillars—social, political/regulatory, economic and technological—comprising a consistent set of eight evaluation criteria. The proposed decision analysis framework builds on the PROMETHEE II and AHP methods. Fourteen countries of different profile and level of progress towards sustainable development are evaluated and ranked, in an effort to highlight areas for improvement, and to support policymakers in designing appropriate pathways towards a greener economy.

Authors:
Hera Neofytou
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Tags:
Sustainable Energy Transitions
Energy Policy
Index
MCDA
PROMETHEE
AHP
Title: Assessing the feasibility of carbon dioxide mitigation options in terms of energy usage
Date: July 2020
Short description:

Measures to mitigate the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) can vary substantially in terms of the energy required. Some proposed CO2 mitigation options involve energy-intensive processes that compromise their viability as routes to mitigation, especially if deployed at a global scale. Here we provide an assessment of different mitigation options in terms of their energy usage. We assess the relative effectiveness of several CO2 mitigation routes by calculating the energy cost of carbon abatement (kilowatt-hour spent per kilogram CO2-equivalent, or kWh kgCO2e–1) mitigated. We consider energy efficiency measures, decarbonizing electricity, heat, chemicals and fuels, and also capturing CO2 from air. Among the routes considered, switching to renewable energy technologies (0.05–0.53 kWh kgCO2e–1 mitigated) offer more energy-effective mitigation than carbon embedding or carbon removal approaches, which are more energy intensive (0.99–10.03 kWh kgCO2e–1 and 0.78–2.93 kWh kgCO2e–1 mitigated, respectively), whereas energy efficiency measures, such as improving building lighting, can offer the most energy-effective mitigation.

Authors:
Oytun Babacan
Sven De Causmaecker
Ajay Gambhir
Mathilde Fajardy
A. William Rutherford
Andrea Fantuzzi
Jenny Nelson
Journal:
Nature Energy
Tags:
Carbon Capture and Storage
Climate Change
Climate Change Mitigation
Energy Infrastructure
Energy science and technology
Title: The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis
Date: June 2020
Short description:

Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit mitigative action taken. The use of such baselines is under increasing scrutiny, raising a wider question around the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. In this Perspective, we assess three critical issues relevant to the use of reference scenarios, demonstrating how different policy contexts merit the use of different scenarios. We provide recommendations to the modelling community on best practice in the creation, use and communication of reference scenarios.

Authors:
Neil Grant
Adam Hawkes
Tamaryn Napp
Ajay Gambhir
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
Climate Change Mitigation
Climate Change Policy
Energy Economics
Energy Policy
Title: Sustainable and socially just transition to a post-lignite era in Greece: a multi-level perspective
Date: May 2020
Short description:

Lignite has long dominated Greece’s electricity system, boosting economic growth and energy security, given the abundant domestic resources. In line with its national and international commitments to climate action and sustainable development, the country is currently facing the urgent need to transform its energy system, overcome its technological lock-ins, and transition to a low-carbon economy.

Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Hera Neofytou
Anastasios Karamaneas
Konstantinos Koasidis
John Psarras
Journal:
Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy
Tags:
Greece
Multi-level perspective
Systems of innovation
Just transitions
Sustainable development
NECP
Title: A robust augmented ε-constraint method (AUGMECON-R) for finding exact solutions of multi-objective linear programming problems
Date: May 2020
Short description:

Systems can be unstructured, uncertain and complex, and their optimisation often requires operational research techniques. In this study, we introduce AUGMECON-R, a robust variant of the augmented ε-constraint algorithm, for solving multi-objective linear programming problems, by drawing from the weaknesses of AUGMECON 2, one of the most widely used improvements of the ε-constraint method.

Authors:
Alexandros Nikas
Angelos Fountoulakis
Aikaterini Forouli
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Operational Research
Tags:
Augmecon
ε-constraint
Multi-objective programming
Optimisation
Pareto
Title: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
Date: May 2020
Short description:

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements.

Authors:
Corinne Le Quéré
Robert B. Jackson
Matthew W. Jones
Adam J. P. Smith
Sam Abernethy
Robbie M. Andrew
Anthony J. De-Gol
David R. Willis
Yuli Shan
Josep G. Canadell
Pierre Friedlingstein
Felix Creutzig
Glen P. Peters
Journal:
Nature Climate Change
Tags:
Climate sciences
Energy and society
Energy science and technology
Environmental sciences
Title: The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions
Date: May 2020
Short description:

Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts.

Authors:
Oscar van Vliet
Susanne Hanger
Alexandros Nikas
Eise Spijker
Henrik Carlsen
Haris Doukas
Jenny Lieu
Journal:
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Tags:
Stakeholders
Climate policy
Risk assessment
Low-carbon transitions
Modelling
Integrated assessment models
Title: Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading
Date: January 2020
Short description:

More than a decade ago, climate scientists and energy modellers made a choice about how to describe the effects of emissions on Earth’s future climate. That choice has had unintended consequences which today are hotly debated. With the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moving into its final stages in 2020, there is now a rare opportunity to reboot.

Authors:
Zeke Hausfather
Glen P. Peters
Journal:
Nature
Tags:
IPCC
Title: Navigating various flexibility mechanisms under European burden-sharing
Date: December 2019
Short description:

In July 2016, the European Commission presented its proposal for a regulation to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in sectors not covered by the emissions trading system with regard to post-2020 binding targets. The proposal extends the burden-sharing framework designed in 2008. This new burden-sharing, called by the European Commission as the Effort Sharing Regulation, is based on a GDP per capita rule and aims to reflect the economic capacity of each European Member State on the basis of its relative wealth.

Authors:
Marc Vielle
Journal:
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
Tags:
Effort Sharing Regulation, European Union, Climate Policy, Computable general equilibrium model
Title: Developing Green: A Case for the Brazilian Manufacturing Industry
Date: November 2019
Short description:

The recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5 °C emphasizes that rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital to achieving the climate mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. The most-needed substantial upscaling of investments in GHG mitigation options in all sectors, and particularly in manufacturing sectors, can be an opportunity for a green economic development leap in developing countries.

Authors:
Camila Gramkow
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Journal:
Sustainability
Tags:
climate change macroeconomics
fiscal policy
sustainable economic development
Title: Contested energy futures, conflicted rewards? Examining low-carbon transition risks and governance dynamics in China's built environment
Date: September 2019
Short description:

China's urbanisation has caused city populations to grow rapidly, boosting continuous development and scaling up the construction industry more intensely. The building sector is thus a key area to consider for climate change mitigation efforts. This study initially seeks to explore the development of a green transition pathway for the Chinese building sector, informed by national and local low-carbon policies and strategies, with specific references to Beijing and Shanghai. Acknowledging that the barriers and impacts of these policies have not been explored in depth and in consideration of the multiplicity of stakeholder views, we then set out to collect stakeholders’ perspectives of implementation and consequential risks associated with the envisaged transition and with the policies aiming to promote this transition. These concerns are evaluated in a multiple-criteria group decision making approach. By focusing on the resulting most critical implementation barriers, we then outline five plausible socioeconomic scenarios, against which we simulate the impacts of the considered policy strategies on the low-carbon transition of the Chinese built environment as well the extent of their key possible negative consequences, by means of fuzzy cognitive maps.

Authors:
Lei Song
Jenny Lieu
Alexandros Nikas
Apostolos Arsenopoulos
George Vasileiou
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Energy Research & Social Science
Tags:
China
Title: Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa
Date: August 2019
Short description:

Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30–35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.

Authors:
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Jon Sampedro
Francis X Johnson
Rob Bailis
Aikaterini Forouli
Alexandros Nikas
Sha Yu
Guillermo Pardo
Silvestre García de Jalón
Marshall Wise
Haris Doukas
Journal:
Environmental Research Letters
Tags:
Africa
Eastern Africa
SDGs