Conferences
Köberle, A.C., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A., van de Ven, D.J., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Vielle, M., Perdana, S., Giarola, S., Rogelj, J. & Nikas, A. (2022). Diagnosing inter-model differences in the macro-economic implications of deep mitigation. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Alexandre C. Köberle (Imperial College London, Grantham Institute)
Kikstra, J., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C., Lewis, J., Lamboll, R., Byers, E., Sandstad, M., Meinshausen, M., Gidden, M., Rogelj, J., Kriegler, E., Peters, G.P., Fuglestvedt, J., Skeie, R., Samset, B., Wienpahl, L., Van Vuuren, D., Van der Wijst, K.I., Al Khourdajie, A., Forster, P., Reisinger, A., Schaeffer, R. & Riahi, K. (2022). IPCC AR6 climate scenarios and the open-source “climate-assessment” tool for IAM emissions scenarios. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Jarmo Kikstra (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis).
Gambhir, A., Mittal, S., Lamboll, R., Grant, N., Köberle, A.C., Hawkes, A., Rogelj, J. & Lowe, J. (2022). Course correcting 1.5oC mitigation pathways in light of new adverse information. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Ajay Gambhir (Imperial College London, Grantham Institute).
Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Moreno, J., Van de Ven, D.J., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., Boitier, B., Koasidis, K. & Nikas, A. (2022). Paris-compliant sustainable development pathways in the EU: a multi-model study. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Lorenza Campagnolo (CMCC).
Mittal, S., Köberle, A.C., Shukla, P.R. & Gambhir, A. (2022). India’s Energy System Transformation to Net Zero. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Shivika Mittal (Imperial College London, Grantham Institute).
Van de Ven, D.J. (2022). An Open and Transparent Modelling Initiative for Globally Implemented Emission Reduction Policies. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Dirk-Jan van de Ven (Basque Centre for Climate Change).
Van de Ven, D.J., Fragkos, P., Filippidou, F., Hermwille, L., Obergassel, W., Clarke, L., Gambhir, A., Gonzalez-Eguino, M., Mittal, S., Nikas, A., Peters, G.P. & Sognnaes, I. (2022). Tracing the transformation through a decade of mitigation scenarios. Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 1, 2022, Maryland, USA.
Presented by Dirk-Jan van de Ven (Basque Centre for Climate Change).
Perdana, S., Xexakis, G., Koasidis, K., Vielle, M., Nikas, A., Doukas, H., Gambhir, A., Anger-Kraavi, A., May, E., McWilliams, B., & Boitier, B. (2022). What do experts perceive as critical game-changing innovations to consider in modelling and policy? European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform 2022 (ECEMP). October 5 - October 7, 2022, Online.
Achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, which has encouraged major economies to pledge for carbon neutrality around or shortly after the middle of this century, requires a clear pathway to carbon-free industrial, economic, and societal activities.
Koasidis, K., Karamaneas, A., Nikas, A., Koutsandreas, D., & Doukas, H. (2022). Stakeholder-informed modelling to decarbonise the Greek power sector in the light of today's energy crisis.European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform 2022 (ECEMP). October 5 - October 7, 2022, Online.
While fossil fuel prices soar during the 2022 global energy crisis, Greece still plans to use natural gas as a transition fuel for delignitisation intending to heavily invest on additional natural gas infrastructure, with strong concerns over potential exacerbation of fossil fuel lock-ins, energy poverty and hurdles to progress in climate action.
Koutsandreas, D., Trachanas, G.P., Pappis, I., Nikas, A., Doukas, H.. & Psarras, J, (2022). An integrated methodology for power generation planning decision support: the case of Greece’s green hydrogen economy. European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform 2022 (ECEMP). October 5 - October 7, 2022, Online.
Green hydrogen could compose an invaluable tool for governments on the race to net zero emissions. It could stabilize variable clean power generation through storage and assist in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors (e.g., transport), where electricity is not an option.
Sorman, A., & Galende-Sanchez, E. (2022). Letting it all out! Behavioural and emotional drivers and our lock-ins to Petrocultures. Petrocultures 2022: Transformations. August 24-27, 2022, Stavanger, Norway.
PARIS REINFORCE researchers, Alevgul Sorman and Esther Galende-Sanchez from the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), took part in the Petrocultures 2022 conference in Stavanger, Norway, presenting their findings from a deliberative dialogue conducted in Spain on how behavioural and emotional drivers can lock us into petroleum-intensive mobility and consumption patterns or move us forward toward climate action, in the session on Oil Behaviours.
Koutsellis, T., Nikas, A., Koasidis, K., Xexakis, G., Petkidis, C., Karamaneas, A., & Doukas, H. (2022). [Paper] Normalising the Output of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. 13th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems and Applications, July 18-20, 2022, Corfu, Greece.
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) constitute a quasi-quantitative modelling tool with the inherent ability to reduce the computational and data complexity of a represented system, as well as engage experts in the process to introduce human cognition in terms of how a system behaves. However, despite being constructed with and for experts, aiming to assist them into better understanding system dynamics, the interpretation of the semi-quantitative outputs of FCMs has been found challenging.
Koasidis, K., Vourgidis, N., Marinakis, V., & Doukas, H. EU-GCC cooperation opportunities on behavioural energy efficiency. Carbon Neutrality in the GCC: Between good-intentioned pledges and the harsh reality. 2022 Gulf Research Meeting, July 14 - July 16, 2022, University of Cambridge, UK.
Heading to as well as in the aftermath of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), the European Union (EU) and Member States of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), through the European Green Deal and the updated Nationally Determined Contributions respectively, renewed their pledges, raising the ambition towards battling climate change. Despite differences in individual commitments, the pathways to achieve these pledges pass through energy efficiency.
Xexakis, G. (2022). Are interactive scenario tools an effective solution for expanding the uncertainty space and communicating scenario results of integrated assessment modeling? Scenarios Forum 2022: Forum on Scenarios for Climate and Societal Futures, June 20 - June 22, 2022, Laxenburg, Austria.
Georgios Xexakis (HOLISTIC) presented a collection of results from two empirical studies on using interactive scenarios tools for stakeholder engagement and scenario communication at the 2022 Scenarios Forum, at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Laxenburg Conference Center in Laxenburg, Austria.
Galende-Sanchez, E., Sorman, A., Gonzalez, M. (2022). Time to listen: A deliberative dialogue in Spain for tackling the climate crisis. 14th Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics, June 14 - June 17, 2022, Pisa, Italy.
Ester Galende-Sanchez, Alevgul Sorman, and Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino (BC3) presented project work on a deliberative dialogue held with 40 Spanish citizens in May-June 2021, focusing on Spanish citizens’ perceptions and feelings on different behavioural changes regarding mobility, consumption, food and waste, at the 14th Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics.
Al-Dabbas, K., Fleiter, T., Rehfeldt, M., Neuwirth, M., & Herbst, A. (2022). Modelling pathways towards a climate-neutral EU industry sector. ECEEE 2022 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, Agents of Change, June 6 - June 11, 2022. Hyères, France.
To attain climate neutrality by 2050, the European industry must achieve significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The EU's Green Deal with the new 55 % reduction target by 2030 and the ‘Fit for 55’ package set the frame for the transition. The Fit-For-55 package is accompanied by an impact assessment that includes scenario analyses for the development of the EU energy system until 2030.
Wachsmuth, J., Jackwerth-Rice, T., Seus, S., & Warnke, P. (2022). Co-Creating Transformative Policy Mixes for Energy-Intensive Industries in Germany and the UK. ECEEE 2022 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, Agents of Change, June 6 - June 11, 2022. Hyères, France.
In view of the long-term climate targets of Germany and the UK, their industry sectors need to be geared to a pathway towards climate neutrality rapidly, which requires radi-cal process innovations in energy-intensive industries such as the production of steel, cement and basic chemicals.
Boitier, B. (2021). Comparative analysis of modelling approaches to assess transition impacts - First insights from the NEMESIS models. Green Finance Research Advances 2021 Seminar, December 7-8, 2021, Institut Louis Bachelier, Paris.
Presented by Baptiste Boitier (SEURECO).
Nikas, A., Elia, A., Boitier, B., Koasidis, K., Doukas, H., Cassetti, G., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., De Miglio, R., Delpiazzo, E., Fougeyrollas, A., Gambhir, A., Gargiulo, M., Giarola, S., Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Herbst, A., Köberle, A.C., Kolpakov, A., Le Mouël, P., McWilliams, B., Mittal, S., Moreno, J., Neuner, F., Perdana, S., Peter, G.P., Plötz, P., Rogelj, J., Sognnæs, I., Van de Ven, D.J., Vielle, M., Zachmann, G., Zagamé, P., & Chiodi, A. (2021). Co-creating a model inter-comparison exercise with stakeholders in the EU. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Alexandros Nikas (NTUA)
Giarola, S., Mittal, S., Vielle, M., Perdana, S.P., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Bui, H., Anger-Kraavi, A., Kolpakov, A., Sognnaes, I., Peters, G.P., Hawkes, A., Koberle, A.C., Grant, N., Gambhir, A., Nikas, A., Doukas, H., Moreno, J., & Van de Ven, D.J. (2021). Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Sara Giarola (Imperial College - Grantham Institute)
Gambhir, A., George, M., McJeon, H., Arnell, N., Bernie, D., Mittal, S., Koberle, A.C., Lowe, J., Rogelj, J., & Monteith, S. (2021). Assessing near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Ajay Gambhir (Imperial College - Grantham Institute)
Mittal, S., Boitier, B., Cassetti, G., Campagnolo, L., Chiodi, A., De Miglio, R., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Gargiulo, M., Giarola, S., Koberle, A.C., Kolpakov, A., McWilliams, B., Moreno, J., Nikas, A., Perdana, S.P., Pied, M., Shirov, A., Silva-Herran, D., Vaillancourt, K., Van de Ven, D.J., Vielle, M., Yang, X., Zachmann, G., & Gambhir, A. (2021). A stakeholder-driven approach to modelling national emissions pathways across the world. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Shivika Mittal (Imperial College - Grantham Institute)
Moreno, J., Van de Ven, D.-J., Sampedro, J., Gambhir, A., Woods, J., & Gonzalez-Eguino, M. (2021). Assessing SDG synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Jorge Moreno (BC3)
Sognnaes, I., Gambhir, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Nikas, A., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Giarola, S., Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Koberle, A.C., Kolpakov, A., Mittal, S., Moreno, J., Perdana, S.P., Rogelj, J., Vielle, M., & Peters, G.P. (2021). A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Dirk-Jan Van de Ven (BC3)
Nikas, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Forouli, A., Koasidis, K., Mittal, S., Giarola, S., Gambhir, A., Koberle, A.C., Chiodi, A., Cassetti, G., Gargiulo, M., Perdana, S.P., Vielle, M., Koutsellis, T., & Doukas, H. (2021). Allocating global COVID-19 recovery packages over low-carbon technologies to optimise between emission reductions and employment gains. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Konstantinos Koasidis (NTUA)
Doukas, H., Spiliotis, E., Jafari, M.A., Giarola, S., & Nikas, A. (2021). An IAM-based framework for evaluating the environmental impact of low-cost technological solutions in the container shipping industry. Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), November 29 - December 3, 2021, Online.
Presented by Evangelos Spiliotis (NTUA)
Nikas, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Forouli, A., Koasidis, K., Mittal, S., Giarola, S., Gambhir, A., Koberle, A.C., Chiodi, A., Cassetti, G., Gargiulo, M., Perdana, S.P., Vielle, M., Koutsellis, T., & Doukas, H. (2021). Investigating optimal allocation of green recovery funds in the EU. 2021 EU Conference on modelling for policy support: collaborating across disciplines to tackle key policy challenges, November 22-26, 2021, Online.
The pandemic had dramatic economic consequences in the EU: despite significant public interventions, more than 1.8 million jobs were lost between September 2019 and September 2020. As fiscal stimulus measures have been and continue to be announced, policymakers can ensure that the short-term stimulus points the economic recovery in a sustainable direction in the long term; in doing so, they must consider the trade-off between these goals.
Doukas, H. (2021). Transition Pathways to a low-carbon economy. 6th HAEE Energy Transition Symposium, September 28 - October 1, 2021, Athens, Greece.
Nikas, A., Skalidakis, S., Sorman, A., Galende-Sanchez, E., Koasidis, K., Serepas, F., Van de Ven, D.J., Moreno, J., Karamaneas, A., Koutsellis, T., Kanellou, E., & Doukas, H. (2021). Integrating Integrated Assessment Modelling in Support of the Paris Agreement: The I2AM PARIS Platform. 12th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems and Applications, July 12-14, 2021, Chania, Greece.
Karamaneas, A., Campagnolo, L., Koasidis, K., Saulo, M., Tsipouridis, I., Gambhir, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Lengyel, Z., McWilliams, B., Nikas, A., Doukas, H. (2021). Interlinking climate action and sustainable development: a fuzzy linguistic group decision making framework. 31st European Conference on Operational Research, July 11-14, 2021, Athens, Greece.
The Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development embody highly intertwined targets and guidelines to act for the climate crisis in conjunction with sustainability. Interlinking climate action and sustainable development is key to prioritising research and informing future mitigation analysis and policy. Here we seek to establish a methodology for implicitly eliciting stakeholders’ unbiased preferences, based on a fuzzy linguistic group decision making and consensus framework.
Kanellou, E., Koasidis, K., Daniil, V., Nikas, A., Doukas, H. (2021). A multiple-criteria evaluation framework for seaport sustainability considering non-homogeneous variables and uncertainty: the case of Piraeus, Greece. 31st European Conference on Operational Research, July 11-14, 2021, Athens, Greece.
The maritime industry is associated with high amounts of emissions produced. With shipping being excluded from the Paris Agreement, the International Maritime Organization has set a 50% CO2 emissions reduction target, although, a concrete pathway has yet to be established, with negotiations being in progress to set a roadmap for the sector after 2023. Seaports are critical in the sector’s sustainability. Infrastructural interventions not only reduce direct emissions from ports, but also enable the use of a more efficient fleet.
Koutsellis, T., Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., Doukas, H. (2021). Exploring the impact of analyst’s choices in fuzzy cognitive maps for climate policy applications. 31st European Conference on Operational Research, July 11-14, 2021, Athens, Greece.
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have recently gained ground in energy and climate policy applications, partly due to stakeholders encountering difficulties in understanding, or being excluded from, state-of-the-art policy support frameworks, like energy- and climate-economic modelling tools.
Nikas, A., Forouli, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., Koutsellis, T., Doukas, H. (2021). Identifying optimal COVID-19 recovery packages: a robust IAM-portfolio analysis of renewable energy technological subsidisation. 31st European Conference on Operational Research, July 11-14, 2021, Athens, Greece.
The pandemic has had significant impacts on the European economy, with approximately 1.8 million EU citizens losing their jobs between September 2019 and September 2020. Towards facilitating a swift and sustainable recovery, the EU launched the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) to provide €672.5 billion of financial support to Member States in the coming years. In line with the European Green Deal and climate efforts, 37% of investments in national plans requesting RRF financing must focus on a “green” transition.
Van de Ven, D.J., Forouli, A., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., Koutsellis, T., Doukas, H., & Nikas, A. (2021). Allocation of European green COVID-19 recovery packages to mitigation emissions and create jobs in crisis years. XVI Conference of the Spanish Association for Energy Economics, June 29-30, 2021, Online.
To support member states’ economic recovery from the effects of COVID-19, the EU has mobilised financial resources as part of the long-term budget of 2021-2027 (European Commission, 2020a). Among the proposed recovery efforts, the EU launched the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) to provide €672.5 billion of financial support to Member States in the coming years (European Commission, 2020b).
Wachsmuth, J., Jackwerth-Rice, T., Seus, S., Warnke, P. (2021). Towards a Methodology for Co-Creating Transformative Policy Mixes. EUSPRI Conference 2021: Science and Innovation – an uneasy relationship? Rethinking the roles and relations of STI policies, June 9 - June 11, 2021, Oslo, Norway (hybrid).
The extent to which modelled future pathways support effective challenge-led policy making has been questioned for a long time, with one major issue being the insufficient integration with the perspectives of policymakers and further stakeholders.
Forouli, A., van de Ven, D. J., Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., Koutsellis, T., Karamaneas, A., & Doukas, H. (2021). Multi-Objective Evaluation of Renewable Technology Subsidy Portfolios from COVID-19 Recovery Packages. Energy, COVID, and Climate Change, 1st IAEE Online Conference, June 7-9, 2021, Online.
To support the green transition, national recovery and resilience plans should allocate at least 37% of investments towards battling climate change and be aligned with the updated target of the European Green Deal of 55 emissions reduction by 2030. This study aims to optimise the impact of the proposed fiscal program and the budget allocated towards the “green” transition in terms of jobs created in the energy sector and further reduction of GHG emissions.
De Miglio, R., Cassetti, G., & Yang, Xi (2020). The BRIDGE study: “Belt and Road Initiative and the Development of Green Economies” - Challenges and opportunities for a Green BRI. Current and Future Challenges to Energy Security, 5th AIEE Energy Symposium. December 15-17, 2020, Milan, Italy (& Online).
This study analyses the impact of China’s hydrogen economy on its border Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries under a regional long-term nearly-zero vision.
Nikas, A., Arsenopoulos, A., Doukas, H., & Romero, A. L. (2020). Prioritisation of risks associated with decarbonisation pathways for the Austrian iron and steel sector using 2-tuple TOPSIS. 14th International FLINS Conference. October, 2020.
Decarbonising emissions-heavy industrial sectors is key to delivering on the Paris Agreement. In Austria, the iron and steel sector holds a large share of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions and is in need of introduction of new technologies, orienting on green hydrogen and renewable energies. Acknowledging that such a transition features diverse exogenous risks and possible consequences, our research attempts to prioritise the risks associated with a pathway promoting a low-carbon iron and steel sector in Austria, from the stakeholders’ perspective.
Lahn, B., Hermansen, E. A. T., Sognnæs, I., & Peters, G. (2020). How do policymakers use climate mitigation scenario information? Joint Annual Meeting of the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S) and the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST), August 21, 2020, Prague, the Czech Republic.
The number of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mitigation scenarios produced by IAMs have been steadily growing since the first IPCC assessment report, and scenarios have become increasingly influential in climate policy debates. Lots of scenarios are now produced that are compatible with the policy targets of the Paris Agreement. IAMs – developed at universities, research institutes, and government agencies – contribute with scenarios to the IPCC reports and the academic literature.
González-Eguino, M., & Van de Ven, D.J. (2019). Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach. Fifteenth Congress of the Spanish Association of Energy Economics, January 30, 2020, Toledo, Spain.
Gargiulo M. (2019). The H2020 Project PARIS REINFORCE. 76th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting, December 11, 2019, Newcastle, Australia.
Doukas, H., & Nikas, A. (2020). PARIS REINFORCE and the I2AM PARIS platform. EMF 35: Japan Model Inter-Comparison Project (JMIP) on long-term climate policy. December 5, 2019, Tokyo, Japan.
Forouli, A., Nikas, A., van de Ven, D. J., Sampedro, J., & Doukas, H. (2019). Achieving sustainable development in Eastern Africa: a portfolio-based integrated assessment modelling analysis among different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Twelfth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium, December 2, 2019, Tsukuba, Japan.
We introduce a two-level integration of integrated assessment modelling and portfolio analysis, in order to simulate technological subsidisation and climate policies with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across different socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties.