Deliverables

The deliverable at hand entitled “Quality Management Plan” defines the quality policy and plan to be applied in the PARIS REINFORCE project. Its purpose is to establish the roles, procedures, metrics, and tools necessary to ensure that the PARIS REINFORCE project is implemented smoothly and that all project deliverables are of high quality and of scientific added value and are submitted to the EC services on time.

In the first six months of PARIS REINFORCE two physical meetings have taken place, the Kick-Off Meeting in Athens on June 10 and 11, 2019, and the second Project Meeting held in Brussels on November 20 and 22, 2019. In addition, four Management Board Meetings (remote) and four Consortium Calls have been realised. All project partners, including the international partners, have been active and engaged in the project meetings, showing high level of ownership and commitment to the objectives of the project.

In the period covered by this report (December 2019 to November 2020) no physical meetings have taken place due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the consortium held one full-day Project Meeting, and fourteen Management Board and Consortium Calls. All project partners have been active and fully engaged in the project meetings, showing high level of ownership and commitment to the objectives of the project.

In line with the Quality Management Plan (deliverable D1.1), physical and remote (online) meetings are employed in PARIS REINFORCE for the effective communication among project partners during the project lifecycle. Regular meetings on all Work Package updates (with reviews and appropriate revisions of the work) enable the consortium to follow a realistic time schedule and to introduce corrective actions in a timely fashion, ensuring that the project is on track towards achieving its objectives and vision.

This deliverable is an initial effort to document all model characteristics that are present within the PARIS REINFORCE consortium, including information regarding assumptions behind models, their geographical and socioeconomic coverage, along with detailed insights regarding methodologies, coverage of emissions, as well as mitigation and adaptation parameters.

This living document is to be used as a tentative protocol (submitted M7 and updated M18), indicating timelines and preliminary activities regarding harmonisation and interlinkages on the first round of modelling attempts, focusing on global and regional models. This deliverable also describes the other tools present within the consortia that add to the robustness of all the approaches we link together across Work Packages 3-7.

This report corresponds to MS3, as part of Task 2.3 and Deliverable D2.4, documenting inter alia the interactive map of models and tools. The map, hereafter named “dynamic documentation”, had been prepared by early November 2019, to showcase during the first Stakeholder Council dialogue of the project, i.e. the 1^st PARIS REINFORCE regional workshop held in Brussels, Belgium, on the 21^st of November 2019.

This report provides a documentation of the platform along with a description of its available services, such as Dynamic Model Documentation, Detailed Model Documentation, Overview and Comparative Assessment, and Visualisation.

This report provides an updated documentation of the I²AM PARIS platform, along with a description of its available services, such as Dynamic Model Documentation, Detailed Model Documentation, Overview and Comparative Assessment, Modelling Results Demonstration, and Variable Harmonisation Heatmap, including detailed instructions on how to take advantage of every available feature in each interface.

This report provides the final documentation of the I²AM PARIS platform, including an extensive description of available services (such as the Dynamic Model Documentation) as well as detailed instructions on how to take advantage of every available feature. The documentation also provides information on each of the six available workspaces that visualise and explain modelling results through interfaces aimed for advanced users but also for policymakers.

This document presents the PARIS REINFORCE Stakeholder Engagement Plan, which is predicated upon the identification and subsequent engagement with the Stakeholder Council. This Council will embody a diverse group of stakeholders, including: policy makers, trade unions, industry associations and business networks, national and international NGOs, academia and the research community, as well as the civil society. Membership of the Council will be dynamic and significantly enriched throughout the course of the project.

This deliverable serves as a detailed policy brief aimed at policymakers and other stakeholder groups, outlining (i) which policy questions have been addressed by each model in the past, who commissioned them, and who they were targeting, ii) a brief description of key modelling features, and iii) the level of transparency of the modelling exercise (assumptions, documentation, etc.).

The first PARIS REINFORCE regional EU workshop was held in Brussels on the 21st of November 2019. The purpose of the event was to initially inform stakeholders as to the capabilities of the models: what they can and cannot do. Building upon this, the event facilitated the co-creation of both the online, open-access, data-exchange platform, I2AM PARIS, and the research topics into which models will be set to address. This deliverable serves as documentation of the proceedings and reports particularly on attendance, agendas, and minutes.

This deliverable describes the process and outcomes of the mapping process of the PARIS REINFORCE Stakeholder Council. We develop a mapping for the PARIS REINFORCE Stakeholder Council, which is essential for the co-creation process enshrined in the project’s objectives. The aim is to enable stakeholder interaction and ensure inclusivity of the Council.

On 26^th May 2021, the PARIS REINFORCE project held its 2^nd Regional EU Workshop. Owing to the ongoing COVID-19 disruptions, the event was held online. The event was broadcast live and lasted for 90 minutes. The topic of the event was ‘From numbers to insights: how to think about economy-climate models’. Modelling experts from the PARIS REINFORCE consortium and DG ENER together discussed live some of the key questions that non-modellers should ask when confronted with a new modelling study.

The PARIS REINFORCE project has held a series of workshops in European and non-European countries to ensure relevance, as well as improve the quality and resilience, of the modelling process. The workshops have consisted of discussions with stakeholders holding expert knowledge on decarbonisation policies and politics in the particular region of interest.

The PARIS REINFORCE project has held a second series of workshops in European and non-European countries to ensure relevance, as well as improve the quality and resilience, of the modelling process.

This deliverable summarises the lessons learned from the extensive stakeholder engagement carried out within the PARIS REINFORCE research programme. Different sections focus on the initially designed plan, efforts to map stakeholder’s roles and interests, as well as lessons learned from actively carrying out stakeholder engagement through workshops and interaction, and from the co-design and development of the I²AM PARIS platform.

The deliverable hosts several case studies, in different countries and sectors, based on different or combinations of Systems of Innovation frameworks. In Greece, an application of the Multi-Level Perspective aims to explore the factors establishing lignite as the mainstream energy resource, as well as the factors sustaining its dominance despite niche technologies and innovations challenging the regime.

As a starting point, this report establishes a multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It introduces a two-level integration of climateeconomy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple SDGs, across socioeconomic trajectories, and considering different levels of uncertainties.

As a starting point, this report establishes an assessment framework and index for evaluating the readiness of different countries to achieve a sustainable transition, based on social, economic, political/regulatory, and technological criteria; the proposed framework is compared against other respective indicators in the literature and finds that major emitters outside Europe appear to lack capacity for drastic energy transitions.

This report first advances the theoretical background of FCMs, via methodological novelties that both ensure FCM model solution and integrate Monte Carlo for parametric uncertainty analysis (Section 1), and documents a new open-source FCM simulation tool (Appendix 5). The enhanced framework is then used in three case studies.

A low-carbon transition is urgently needed to meet the 1.5C Paris climate targets. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, however, has imposed widespread economic burdens, including declines in investments and employment, which have hindered the development of many sectors, including clean energy.

This document presents the five modelling tools that will be used in WP5 of the PARIS REINFORCE research project. Its aim is to provide a good overview of each of the documented models for a large variety of stakeholders of climate policymaking within the European Union (EU). At the same time, it has sufficient technical detail so that experts can have an accurate overview of the provided documentation.

WP5 focuses on the European low-carbon transformation projected to take place in the following decades. Five models are used with national or regional coverage within the EU-28 as well as some other European countries. The purpose of the first round of modelling is to provide a global context of where we are heading with current policies around the world, where we are supposed to be heading to comply with the Paris goals for temperature change, and what this means for the climate efforts required per country or region, including the EU.

We present the first batch of Paris reinforce models‘ runs for EU that has implemented the “Where are We Headed” scenario protocol which explores where the World is headed given countries’ current climate action. This modelling exercice has been supported by an ensemble of eleven modelling tools and has allowed going through stakeholders’ research questions, that have been collected at the beginning of the project.

This document describes in detail the key attributes of the models that will be used in PARIS REINFORCE to develop and examine sustainable development and decarbonisation pathways for major and less emitting countries and regions outside of Europe. These regions include the USA, Canada, Mexico, China, India, Japan, Brazil, and the Central Asian Caspian region.

PARIS REINFORCE will utilise a range of energy and integrated assessments models, as well as sectoral models, to explore in depth the system transformations that can help achieve the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming rise to “well below 2^oC” and “pursuing efforts towards 1.5^oC”.

This report sets out how each of the regions examined (USA, China, India, Brazil, Russia, Central Asian Caspian, Canada, Mexico) has the potential to make deep emissions reductions, in many cases to net-zero by 2050, but in all cases on a pathway towards net-zero by 2070 at the latest. In most regions this is achieved by a rapid penetration of renewables (and in some cases nuclear) into the electricity system, increasing electrification of end-use sectors (industry, transport, and buildings) and the use of other low-carbon energy vectors such as biomass and hydrogen.

This deliverable identifies potential transformative innovations that can help deliver a deep decarbonisation pathway in line with the Paris Agreement and overall climate goals. Selected low-carbon innovations, both technological and non-technological, are chosen based on recent scientific literature. An evaluation of these innovations is then conducted by means of a worldwide online survey targeting climate and energy experts.

This document presents the eight modelling tools to be used in WP7 of the PARIS REINFORCE research project. Its aim is to provide a good overview of each of the documented models for a large variety of stakeholders of climate policymaking at the global level.

WP7 focuses on global stocktaking of climate efforts, and six global models will be used for a series of extensive model inter-comparisons. The purpose of the first round of global modelling is to provide a global context of where we are heading with current policies and where we are supposed to be heading to comply with the Paris goals for temperature change. Therefore, the global models will be run in a coordinated way, providing the best scientific basis for a model inter-comparison exercise.

We set out to understand the needs of policymakers and stakeholders, as reflected in our stakeholder engagement and knowledge co-creation processes, then review the extent to which these have been addressed in the recent modelling literature following the Paris Agreement, before examining how our modelling armoury can respond to these needs.

PARIS REINFORCE is utilising a range of energy and integrated assessments models, as well as sectoral models, to explore in depth the system transformations that can help achieve the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming rise to “well below 2oC” and “pursuing efforts towards 1.5oC”.

This Deliverable is a key component of the co-design process within the PARIS REINFORCE project. Its aim is to collect and collate stakeholders’ perspectives on the future of the Paris Agreement, post-2020, as the basis for developing stakeholder-led modelling scenarios.

This deliverable outlines the methods, logic, and structure behind the global mitigation scenarios performed in PARIS REINFORCE, and also graphically outlines summarised results from these scenarios. The results show the gap between current climate change mitigation ambitions and Paris-compliant targets, and how a diverse set of models attempt to fill this gap through energy system transformations.

The purpose of this document is to describe the visual identity of the PARIS REINFORCE project, which is part of the CDE plan and Task 8.3 "Creating the project’s visual identity and website" activities. Communication tools; dissemination tools, including information and communication means such as logo, flyer, leaflet, poster, roll-up; and finally presentation are presented.

This report, the Communication, Dissemination, & Exploitation (CDE) Plan, mainly outlines the ways that can applied for the project and consortium to be informed about relevant research and novelties in the field of integrated assessment modelling and policymaking as well as to share the PARIS REINFORCE scope and results with the appropriate audiences. In doing so, the CDE Plan defines the PARIS REINFORCE communication, dissemination and promotional channels and means that will be used for this distribution.

This report is the 1st update of the Communication, Dissemination, & Exploitation (CDE) Plan, issued at the end of the 1st year of PARIS REINFORCE and outlines the ways through which the project’s concept, progress and results have been promoted to the appropriate stakeholders, as well as the promotional activities that are scheduled to be implemented in the upcoming year.

This report is the 2^nd and final update of the Communication, Dissemination, & Exploitation (CDE) Plan, issued one year before the end of the PARIS REINFORCE project. It outlines the ways and material, through which the project’s concept, progress, and results have been promoted to the appropriate stakeholders, as well as the promotional activities that are scheduled to be implemented in the upcoming, final year.

Towards underpinning climate policymaking with authoritative scientific processes and results and enhancing the science-policy interface, the PARIS REINFORCE website is meant to establish according to the DoA, a leading visual presence in online media, including a project website for the presentation of results, as well as an effective presence in social media channels to further spread excellence and raise awareness.

This report is the first version of the PARIS REINFORCE Data Management Plan (DMP). It outlines the procedures that will be applied regarding the collection, processing, production, and storage of research data within the project.

This report is the first update to the PARIS REINFORCE Data Management Plan (DMP) that was submitted at the end of the first semester. It outlines the procedures that will be applied regarding the collection, processing, production, and storage of research data within the project.

This report is the last update to the PARIS REINFORCE Data Management Plan (DMP). It outlines the procedures applied regarding the collection, processing, production, and storage of research data within the project.

To mobilise acquired, processed, and accumulated knowledge for policy debate and informed business and civil society, PARIS REINFORCE has ensured timely publications targeted at policymakers and stakeholders. This deliverable presents the most impactful means used in PARIS REINFORCE, namely the distribution of newsletters and press releases; the publication of commentaries and other publications in the press (e.g. non-scientific journals); policy briefs; videos; infographics; as well as presentations in policy events.

To mobilise acquired, processed, and accumulated knowledge for policy debate and informed business and civil society, PARIS REINFORCE has ensured timely publications targeted at policymakers and stakeholders. This deliverable presents the most impactful means used in PARIS REINFORCE, namely the distribution of newsletters and press releases; the publication of commentaries and other publications in the press (e.g., non-scientific journals); policy briefs; videos; infographics; as well as presentations in policy events.

To mobilise acquired, processed and accumulated knowledge for scientific debate and progress, including for the purpose of feeding into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6) Cycle, PARIS REINFORCE has ensured timely scientific publications in high-impact, peer-reviewed journals, as well as presence in distinguished academic conferences. This deliverable summarises this scientific output, by listing the papers, conferences, and special issues.

To mobilise acquired, processed and accumulated knowledge for scientific debate and progress, including for the purpose of feeding into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6^th Assessment Report (AR6) Cycle, PARIS REINFORCE has ensured timely scientific publications in high-impact, peer-reviewed journals, as well as presence in distinguished academic conferences. This deliverable summarises this scientific output, by listing the papers, conferences, and special issues.

Two final conferences for the PARIS REINFORCE project were held, one at the Acropolis Museum, Athens on the 8^th of November 2022, and another at Sorbonne University, Paris on the 15^th of November 2022. The aim was to disseminate the knowledge co-produced throughout the 3.5 years of the project and stimulate a dialogue with the stakeholders on project findings.

Synergies can come in many forms and have multiple aims, but given the objectives, scope and framework of the PARIS REINFORCE project, we distinguish two axes of synergies, both aimed at delivering high-quality, relevant and robust policy prescriptions: (a) joining scientific forces to promote science; and (b) broadening outreach to promote inclusiveness and stakeholder participation.

PARIS REINFORCE has participated in the steering activities of its three sister projects (ENGAGE, NAVIGATE, LOCOMOTION). Thematic complementarities have been identified and helped formulate the research questions of the project, mainly in respect to the EC’s requests for research in emerging themes, like COVID-19.